Archive - Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

Announcement: Closing Down

I'm shutting down the substack. It's been a blast.

Dec 11, 2023 •

September 2023

LGI Homes (LGIH-US): A Coiled Spring

Housing affordability remains challenged, but greenshoots are appearing. LGI is well positioned medium-term to benefit from a structural Single-Family…

Sep 10, 2023 •

August 2023

Dollar General (DG-US) - It's a trap!

I sold DG last week for a small loss. The road ahead will be hard and there are just easier stories out there.

Aug 22, 2023 •

Short Idea: AURC-US (Better Mortgage)

AURC is set to De-Spac on/or about 22nd of August which will increase freefloat by nearly 1,300x. I expect the DeSpac to be met with significant selling…

Aug 17, 2023 •

SMRT - Accounting vs. Reality

SMRT underlying business continues to deteriorate whilst accounting numbers paint a rosy picture.

Aug 10, 2023 •

July 2023

Carlisle 2Q - Thesis playing out

Margins holding in better than expected despite a worse-than-expected de-stock. Capital returns continue.

Jul 28, 2023 •

APLD - 4Q Review

Unpacking guidance

Jul 25, 2023 •

APLD (Follow-up) - The shady truth about APLD's potato business

Wes Cummins claims that he sold his potato business to Applied Plasma to "provide cashflow". Bankruptcy filings say otherwise

Jul 11, 2023 •

Applied Digital (Part One): The 40% mystery customer

I dig into local filings to show that something doesn't add up with GMR Limited, APLD's opaque 41% customer

Jul 7, 2023 •

May 2023

Accounting Shenanigans (SMRT-US)

Don't be fooled by the accounting gimmicks

May 12, 2023 •

April 2023

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Earnings were a little soft due to higher destock than anticipated. Cyclical headwinds likely to persist for a few quarters.

Apr 28, 2023 •

OLO's Dilemma... (part 2)

Key Takeaways from follow-up work

Apr 25, 2023 •

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